The Gisborne Times. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. THURSDAY, MAY 14, 1908. THE DOMINION’S FUTURE.

Gisborne Times, Volume XXVI, Issue 2190, 14 May 1908, Page 2

The Gisborne Times. PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. THURSDAY, MAY 14, 1908. THE DOMINION’S FUTURE.

New Zealanders have so long 'been accustomed to having their ears tickled iby (perennial assurances on the part of corpulent, pleasure-loving, talkative politicians that “the remarkable prosperity of our great country continues,” that “we are the wealthiest people per head, in the world,” that “our resources are boundless,” and. so forth, that it comes as a decided shock to find the pronouncement seriously urged that tlio Dominion is in for a ibad timo. It is particularly significant that the “Lyttelton Times,” a .Government organ which has in the past cried “hear, hear” to the most absurdly optimistic utterances of Ministers, should on the present occasion havo assumed the role of a Cassandra and frankly told the people that a period of depression may be looked for. 'Unfortunately, there is .good reason for these doleful predictions, and although prophecy is invariably an uncertain occupation, our Christchurch contemporary has done 'well to call attention to the present position and the probabilities. As most people are aware, the vagaries of the wool market, upon which the prosperity of the Dominion so largely depends, is the cause of the trouble. .Prices havo fallen anywhere from 30 to 50 .per cent, according to the grade of the fibre, and as it is the crossbred classes which have suffered most, the loss comes with especial severity" on the New Zealand producers. It has been estimated that under this head alone the loss to the Dominion during the season that has just closed, will have, been fully £2,w0,000. This is, of course, a tremendous rebuff, that under certain circumstances might have amounted to a catastrophe, for such a small community as our own. Fortunately it has followed upon many years of unprecedented prosperity for “the man on the land” who will 'be chiefly affected by the changed conditions, and, provided the prices recover within a reasonable period, the resultant difficulties will in all probability bo tided over 'without any serious effect upon the community as a whole. If, however, the collapse in the wool market should prove to bo more than temporary, the result may be a depression, the extent of which none can predict. .It costs just as much to rear andifeed a sheep when its fleece realises Id per lb. as when it was worth Bd, and the difference therefore represents a clear loss to the sheep farmer. The diminished revenue will at once .be reflected in a reduced value for sheep country. Those who hold the titles of their properties will still find sheep grazing and fattening a comparatively profitable undertaking, but the large number whose farms are heavily mortgaged trill find the task of paying interest on 'former values a very heavy one and it will take them all their time to make both ends meet. Crown settlere, too, will, in a large number of cases, have a hard row to hoe and many of those who have been considered lucky at land ballots will deserve the sympathy rather than .the

envy of those who were unsuccessful in tho Government lottery. This, however, is tho worst side ot the. picture, but fortunately it is not the only aspect of tho situation. Though wool has shown an extraordinary drop, mutton and lamb still command remunerative .prices on the London market, whilst the marked tendency in rocont years for our farmers to take lip additional linos of production seems likely to stand them in good stead. The Tienip market received a very sovoro sof-buck early in tho season, hut it has recently made a lair recovery nud.tho -production of iphorm ill in tonax socni6 likely to bo largely increased in. tho immediate future. Both cheese and butter are selling remarkably well and the prospects for dairy produco sewn rather brighter than they have been at any previous period. It must bo borne in mind, moroover, that with a soil and climate such as we have in Now Zoaland, thoro is no need for our peoplo to be entirely dependent upon the market price of one staple product. It is true that under normal conditions it is much easier for a furiuor to make a living from mutton, lamb and wool than in any other way, and it is probably this .fact which lias led to the neglect of many natural advantages. If wool should remain low, one of the probable results would be that mixed farming would be carried on in all parts of the Dominion, where tho circumstances wore favorable. Wheat and other cereals would again receive more attention; fruit-growing on a large scalo for canning purposes would be taken up and in many other ways tho danger of carrying all the oggs in ono basket would bo guarded against. Of course, it is just possible—though at the moment we can scarcely liopo for such an event — that tho wool market may revive as quickly as it collapsed. In such, a case there would be an immediate quickening of tho whole of our industrial life. Tho present .position that a largo quantity of wool has been withdrawn from auction because of the unsatisfactory prices ruling and tho knowledge that this is still on hand will naturally tend to keep values down. lOn the other hand it is only necessary that the former demand for wool which for various reasons—chiefly the financial troubles consequent on the American bank crisis—should again assert itself for orders to come in freely. Once there is any competition to take tho placo Of the present disinclination of manufacturers to buy, the improved tone will at onco have an effect oil prices. It does not seem reasonable that such a marked reduction in the world’s consumption of wool as has taken place during the past few months is likely to be permanent, and it is in this fact that the hope of our sheep industry must for the present depend.