OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

Gisborne Times, Volume XXVII, Issue 2527, 14 June 1909, Page 2

OUR YORKSHIRE LETTER.

OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING

SALES,

(From Oar Special Correspondent.)

BRADFORD, April 30, 09. Next Tuesday tho third series of Colonial wool sales begin, and already the eyes of the entire world are focussed moon Coleman.' Street ; there, being as much interest as ever manifest in the probable course of events. The movement of wool and tops during the vacation in consuming centres both at home and abroad leads one to' expect, another rise, and there is no disguising the fact that the trade is still m a good humor for buying the raw.material. SloVvly but surely prices have risen sinco the May sales, 1908, and it appears that we are not yet at the top of the ascent. It must ,be admitted that the experience is a far more pleasant and profitable one when values are rising than whan prices slump, and the course of events since this year dawned have helped considerably to dispel the gloom and despondency which arose through the heavy losses which had to be accounted for as the direct result of the slump of last year. If the experience of 1908 counts, for anything, it shows that 40’s tops at 8d and super. 6Q’s at 19-id are always a good investment, and if the trade learns well the lesson of last year it will help to compensate not a little for the heavy losses which befell practically everybody with the raw material. We do not think we can do better than show how values have steadily risen since the bottom was touched, and the following table shows the great chango that has come over prices for leading descriptions of both meriaio and crossbred tops:—AVERAGE QUOTATIONS FOR TOPS 70’s. GO’S. 50’s. 40’s.

It may be interesting and useful to remind readers that during the boom year of 1907, when the unanimous opinion was expressed that prices got to a ‘'dangerous” level, super 60’s tops the last week in April were quoted at 27rj-d, or only a penny above t-o-day’s quotation, whereas 40’s tops were standing at 17d to 17|d, a far different price to what they are to-day. Many of the shrewdest operators strongly hold the opinion that 40’s go- up or 60's come down, but we must say that notwithstanding such quotations for merinos, we cannot at the momert see much chance of a fall, and any ■ can go should find coarse crossbreds depreciating. The question of supplies is perhaps at the moment the one feature of the market which is receiving most attention, and we referred to this important subject a fortnight ago. Like many more we must admit, that Dalgety’s last cable, giving the exports from Australasia up to the end of last month, was a little startling, and it deserved serious consideration. In analysing the figures we frankly admit that we think we rather over estimated the quantity of wool that is likely to be available between now and the advent of the next Australian clip. It will be remembered that Dalgety s stated that for the first nine months of the current year the exports from Australasia amounted to 2,095,000 bales, or an increase of 259,000 bales. Such a statement of figures exceeded considerably the .most sanguine expectations, and they point conclusively to the fact that without reckoning the old clip carried over last June MOth, there is going to be a sensible increase even in the current year’s clip. We their stated that if we took the total deliveries which had been made to tho the trade up to the end of last March series—l,3lo,ooo bales from Dalgety’s figures 2,095,000 bales, that apart from succeeding shipments during the three remaining months of the current year there yet remained 785,000 bales to come forward into the hands of the trade by way of direct imports and London sales. On the surface that is correct, but seeing that Dalgety’s figures went back and included the shipments from last July Ist, it is only fair to put against them the total deliveries to the trade say from last September London sales", and if we do that a different complexion is put upon matters. We think the following is a fair and honest representation of the case, and shows that there is less wool likely to he available in the middle of the year than what a surface glance at Dalgetys’ last figures would lead one to think. The following seems to us to represent concisely the statistical standing of the wool situation, and throw considerable light npon the record shipments of wool from Australasia up to the end of last March 31st: Deliveries to tho trade : from Julv to end of Sept, series ... 290,000 bales. End of Nov. series 239,000 ~ End of Jan. and March series ... 1,310,000 ~

Total deliveries 1,839,000 bales Add gross arrivals for May series. ... 377,500 ~

2,216,600 bales

The above more than accounts for Dalgety’s Australasian! wool exports, but it should not he forgotten that there is included deliveries to the trade of South African wools, tho arrivals of which since last July series amount to 255,492 bales, consequently these should really come off the above Australian figures. Putting one over against the other it points broadly to the fact that the available quamtities of wool for succeeding series are. going to be very much smaller than we thought they were, and for the July and September series the offerings will be comparatively small. Of course, if the wool is not available for London sales, it is somewhere, and undoubtedly it has gone forward into

the hands of consumers. This raises the question of how such small prospective supplies are likely to affect value, and we can only say that whether the wool is at present in consumer’s hands or otherwise, values for merinos are-getting where reasonable caution is advisable. Trade no doubt is good, particularly in the worsted industry. At the same time even growers’ interests will-bo best served by a steady market at good prices, for nothing upsets trade so much as these periodic booms and slumps. Above all we don’t want to see a repetition of the fiasco of 1907-8, for fine wool is getting well above its real market value. Prospects point to an ’ all-round 5 per cent, advance next week, which is quite plenty.

d. d. d. d. April . m 264. •174 124 May . 22 20 15 8 June ... .. . 24 214 15 10 J uly . '.. . 24| 23 15i 11 August . 244 224 15* 101 September 24i 22 15 10 October . 24 22 144 10 November 25 23 16 115 December . 254' 23 m 11 £ January . 251 23i 161 12 February . 26 234 164 12 March . 27 25 17 12i