The Gisborne Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 1909 THE LICENSING ISSUE.

Gisborne Times, Volume XXVII, Issue 2658, 13 November 1909, Page 4

The Gisborne Times PUBLISHED EVERY MORNING. SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 1909 THE LICENSING ISSUE.

Present indications are that the radical amendments to the existing licensing laws which have been drawn up by the Government will ho passed by the House during the present session and controversy is sure to be aroused as to the probable effects of the alterations. Firstly, it must be borne in mind that although the alteration to 55 per cent, marks a very substantial concession to the No-license party it is different from the bare majority. For instance, in the Gisborne electorate at last election a bare majority poll would have resulted in Nolicense being carried by 520 votes, but under the 55 per cent, system it would have been lost by approximately 171 votes. In 3S electorates where No-li-e.ense was no.t carried bare majorities in its favor were secured., but in about ten of .these the odd five per cent, required would have still been sufficient to keep the hotel bar.s open. Taking the subject of Dominion prohibition, which will be the burning question at next elections, we find that the Nolicense party had an apparently substantial majority, but it would still have been insufficient to enforce prohibition under the new system. The total votes recorded were 414,300. Of these 221,471 were cast for No-licenso or 14,324 above a bare majority, but another 6,300 votes would have been required to turn the scale in favor of No-license under the new system of reckoning the value of votes. As to the probabilities of the No-license party being able to make the further headway that is still needed to.give effect to its views, it is interesting to note the findings of a Christchurch Nolicense worker, Mr J. McCombs. This gentleman in a pamphlet published recently showed that because of the existence of what he terms an unconvertible liquor factor in the population, and th© handicap of the three-fifths, it is only reasonable to expect that each election will find the gain of the Nolicense people to be proportionately less than it was at the preceding elections. He suggests a case of an electorate under wlifyjSi thet NjpUieense party fall short of .success at the polls by 400 votes in .a'fatal vote of 4500. He then adds :

“It might naturally be supposed that if the No-license party polled 400 more votes at the next election victory would be theirs; but under the three-fifths provision this i.s not so, because directly they add 400 votes to the No-license total they also add 400 to the total of voters, of which they have to get three-fifths. They now have to get, not threefifths of 4,500, but three-fifths of 4900, and consequently they find themselves short of .victory by threefifths of 400 or .240; and if at the next poll they add .240 the same principle applies; three-fifths of the 240 new No-licensc votes counts against itself.”

This argument, it will be noted, will

still apply though with lessened force to the arrangement whereby the Nolicense vote to be effective lias to exceed a bare majority by one twentieth. Mr McCombs sums up the advance made by the No-lioense'party thus: —Diminishing Rat© of Progress.— 1599 ... 4.1 per cent,, advance. 1902! ... 6.56 par cent, advance. 1905 ... 2.39 per fcent. advance. 1908 2.18 per cent, advance.

It will thus be noted that if the Nolicense rate of advance continues fo decrease the issue in 1911 will be exceptionally close. Of course it is hard to estimate the effect of the abolition of the reduction vote. At last election over 160,000 votes were cast under this issue and its elimination is bound to have some slightly disturbing effect on the two main issues. Then the proviso that a National vote will count not merely for No-license, liut for absolute prohibition, will cause.a large section of the public to review their position on this important question. Some who now favor No-license may look upon the imposition of Prohibition as an unwarrantable interference with personal liberty whilst others who, in the past, have voted against No-licenso on the ground that it would not be effective in coping with the abuses of the liquor trade may be induced by the altered conditions to throw in their lot with the No-license' party. Altogether the new legislation, if carried .into effect, whilst giving a good deal of practical encouragement to the No-license workers will, at the same time, leave ample room for speculation as to its results.