THE TRUE EUROPEAN DANGER AMONG THE TERMS OF PEACE.

Globe, Volume IX, Issue 1284, 1 May 1878, Page 3

THE TRUE EUROPEAN DANGER AMONG THE TERMS OF PEACE.

["Pall Mall Gazette."] It might perhaps be thought that the agitation about the Bulgarian atrocities which was taken by Mr Gladstone undor his protection in the autumn of 1876 hud done enough to stamp itself in history by ruining the Liberal party, confounding British diplomacy, perverting the whole course of British foreign policy, and bringing Europe to the verge of a general war. But much the greatest and farthest-reaching mischief which it has produced consists in its estopping the civilised portion of Europe from protecting itself against one patent and prodigious danger. Austria is said to complain of the terms of peace because Servia and Roumania are to be turned into independent States; yet this is little moic than a technical change in their relation to the Turkish Government and their neighbours, and the true peril lies elsewhere. It lies in that menacing revolution which is called establishing "autonomy" in Bulgaria, and which the Opposition has almost compelled the English Government to regard as open to no serious objection. For what is the meaning of an " autonomous tributary principality" with a "native militia" and with the Turkish troops confined to certain fortresses? This is an accurate description of Servia as she has been for many years past —at any rate, as she was until she succeeded in foroing the Turks to remove their garrison from Belgrade. Now, with the recent history of Servia fresh in our memory, will the boldest Liberal enthusiast for Russian policy and institutions venture to deny that the present proposal is to extend the Russian Empire to the JEgean ? What is to be established is a State vassal to Russia, a Bulgarian Servia astride on the Balkans, with its Prince Milan, with the public morality of a Ristics, with its army always ready to fight at the Czar's bidding, except when it runs away. The Constitution of the new State will be that of Servia ; the next chapter of its history will probably reflect that of Roumania. When Wallachia and Moldavia finally became "autonomous tributary principalities" they left no stone unturned till they had united themselves in one State, an object which they achieved by electing the billiard-marker Couza to be their common Prince. The Turkish Government was powerless to prevent a measure which has largely contributed to its misfortunes, although the Crimean war had just been carried through to secure its integrity and independency ; though it had by this time begun to create a well-equipped army and a powerful fleet, and though it waa succeeding in filling its coffers with the hoarded wealth of Europe. When, then, in tho course of a few years the "autonomous" Bulgarian Servia votes for a union with the " independent" Servia so long known to us, what can the bankrupt and helpless Porte do to save Europe from the transfer of the greatest part of Turkey to the Russians ? She will have neither money nor credits one of her best recruiting grounds for soldiers will be closed to her. The most reasonable course she can follow will be to purchase some new and humble favour from the Russian Emperor by pretending to acquiesce cheerfully in his aggrandisement. Why is it that all or nearly all the European Governments murmur with bated breath against a catastrophe which three or four years ago they would have regarded as the Greeks of Philip's day would have regarded the posting of a Macedonian garrison in the Acropolis of Athens? The reason is that their mouths are stopped by the admissions made by their plenipotentiaries at the Constantinople Conference. And the Constantinople Conference was the first unhappy result of the Gladstonian agitation. Until the moment when this country was seized with the fever-fit which, even now that she is far on the way to recovery, still affects her with an extreme debility, the course of affairs in the East was plain enough. The alliance of the Three Emperors may now have come to belong to the apocrypha of history; but originally there was a manifest; attempt on the part of tho Powers of Middle Europe to picvent the Powers of the extreme East and the Powers of the extreme West from coming into direct antagonism. The newspaper story of the Bulgarian atrocities, followed by the English explosion, disarranged all calculation. The Austrian and German Governments—wo will even add the Russian Government—would have attached but little importance to the so-called Bulgarian massacres if nothing else had happened. They were all too well aware of what they were in the habit of doing thomselvc3 when an insurrection had to bo suppressed. They knew the Turks too well, and would not have believed that a nation could wage a Crimean war without knowing what its clients were capable of under extreme provocation and in well-grounded panic. But it was another matter when the atrocity-meetings seemed to show that England had gone over to the Russian side, while France was all but powerless. The rest of Europe had counted on the balance of European destiny remaining reasonably steady ; but now the heaviest weight seemed to have been taken out of one scale and placed in tho other. A new policy had to bo suddenly devised, amid general hurry and coni'usion; and hence came the consent of tho European Powers to go into Conference at Constantinople, in the hope of solving the miserable problem whether the minimum the Russians would taki> coincided with the maximum the Turks would give. The result we now see was exactly what might have been expectod. The Turks refused to reform their own institutions except in their own way. The States of Europe, bound by their own admissions that some considerable innovations must be introduced into Turkey, had u lot Russia "o to war with her almost in the» name. After rather more of a struggle than was at first expected, Turkey jb at Russia s

feet, and Russia turns the very difficulties she has experienced to her own advantage. If she had conquered in six weeks, she would have perhaps limited her demands to the programme of the Conference. As Bhe has taken nine months to effect her conquest, she just adds to the mysterious scheme of the Constantinople plenipotentiaries for a Bulgarian " autonomy" some few additional particulars which make it perfectly intelligible, but which are of a nature to keep Europe in continuous alarm for the rest of the century.

Some excellent articles which have just appeared in French newspapers may remind us of compliments which are due from us in two different quarters. We have to congratulate the French press —virtually the whole of it—for having steadily preservod for two years a method of discussing the Eastern Question of which the highest praise is that it contrasts sharply with the nauseous drivel which the subject excites in some of the principal English journals. An English Liberal may well throw down his newspaper with shame when he reads the articles on Eastern affairs which appear in such a representative old-fashioned Liberalism as the " Journal des Debats" and such an organ a« the " Republic Erancaise." The " Journal des Debats," moreover, recalls to us the duty of tendering our respectful compliments to the Russian Government. We entirely agree with our French contemporary that no more brilliant triumph has ever been won by the diplomacy of any State than that which the Russian Chancery has now obtained. There was some nonsense the other day in the " Times" about the successes of the Russian generals and the mistakes of the Russian diplomatists. The mistakes are thoio of a chess-player who has won every move, and is on the point of checkmating his adversary. The policy of two centuries is crowned with an absolute success, as the result of a campaign in which no blow has been struck except against the unhappy Turks, and with which no rival has interfered till intervention was ludicrously too late. The helplessness of France, the rawness in public affairs of Italy, the obstinate family feeling of the German Emperor, the vacillations in the mind of the Sovereign who is at once Emperor of Austria and King of Hungary have all contributed to this extraordinary exaltation of the Russian Emperor; but most of all is it due to Mr Gladstone and his agitation.