BILLIONS OF BILLIONS.

Wanganui Chronicle, Volume LXVI, Issue 17583, 29 May 1919, Page 6

BILLIONS OF BILLIONS.

COST OF WAR'S DEVASTATION,

RUINS AND HECTACOMBS

Various estimates have been made! of the cost of the war, but so far, none has dealt with the whole of the bill for the whole of the period. Any estimate outside the official figures of the direct cost —that is, the cost as disclosed in votes of credit, subscriptions to loans, and new taxation (—must, of course, be largely conjectural; but it is, nevertheless, possible tir obtain a fairly approximate idea with regard to the vaguer items of material damage and economic disturbance. There is disagreement even about the direct costs, due partly to the absence of figures from some of the belligerent States, and partly to variations of estimate for the armistice period. There is, however, enough accord to justify a general judgment, and a few millions of difference in the reckoning of expenditure, or a difference in the standards of the economic value of men's lives, will not vitiate the essential quality of that judgment. What is it we mean by "the cost of the war?" asks a writer in the London "Daily Telegraph." Obviously we mean much more than the amount represented by taxes and loans. What yiay properly be included are the di/ect cost to belligerents and neutrals, the value of the property destroyer', the loss in production by the diversion of men from industry to warfare, and the economic value of the lives that have been lost or rendered incapable of any useful work. Some writers appear to think that the question of cost is complicated by ihe possibilities of indemnity and reparation, but these have really little to do with it. No act of compensation can lessen the bill; it simply shifts, or partly shifts, the burden from the wronged to those who have done the wrong. Any indemnity paid by Germany to France, for instance, would lessen France's own liability, but it would not decrease the cost of the war. FORTY THOUSAND MILLION POUNDS. For arriving at the direct cost of the war there are a number of data, more or less useful, but they do not all relate to the samo periods, nor do they cover the whole of the field. M. Augustin Mamon, in his "Lessons of the World War," said a couple of years ago that if the war did not cease before the close of 1918 the total expenditure might grow to as much as £29,600,000,000. That calculation was published before the United States came in, and, moreover it did not make sufficient allowance for expansion in the subsequent rate of expenditure. Mr Joseph Kitchin has prepared an estimate of the costs "based on what they would have been if actual hostilities had lasted until the end of July next." For eight months of that period the expenditure in armistice conditions will be considerably less than it would have been if fighting had continued, and for this reason Mr Kitchin's estimate of £38,915,000,000 for all the belligerents may be a little too high. On the other hand, it has to be remembered that neutrals have been obliged, in view of possibilities, to spend large sums of money in defensive preparations, and we shall probably not exaggerate if we pu.t down the total direct cost up to the signing of peace at not less than £40,----000,000,000 odd. This tptal is also arrived at by the Federal Reserve Board of Washington. it cannot, of course, be vouched for, but it is believed to be substantially correct. We have at least this indisputable fact to go upon, that the public debts of the Entente and Allied countries have grown since August 1914, from £4,565,000,00p to £25,----350,000,000; and those of the Central Powers from £1,2-10,000,000 to £14,650,000,000; the increase for all the belligerents, but not including neutrals, being £34,225,000,000. From this sum, however, should be deducted the British loans to Allies and Dominions, and to it there ought to be added the war debts of the German States; but these adjustments do not by a jot affect the relation of national debts to the question of war costs. It may be fainy ass'-r^ed that the figure of £40.000,----000,000 of direct cost, with its consequent and inevitable burden on the next two generations, is approxima-' tely accurate. COJnJECTURAL ESTIMATES. When we come to the subject of mu'.ariui damage, any satisfactory assessment is much more difficult. In the absence of official surveys, it must be purely conjectural. What we do know, however, of the havoc wrought in France and Belgium warrants conjecture on the big scale. Other countries—Poland, Lithuania, Eastern Prussia, the Bukovina, Galicia, Servia, Roumania, Macedonia, the Trentino and our own East Coast—have also suffered severely. M. Hamon put this devastation down at 2000 millions, but that was before the last great drive of Marshal Foch, in the course Of which the enemy burnt or blew up every town and village through which he retreated. Fifty per cent might perhaps be now added to M. Hamon's figure without exposing it to the charge of exaggeration. Then there is the incalculable loss caused by the removal of productive plant, the forced suspension of industry, the interference with the world's oversea commerce, the disorganisation of the world's in- , dustry, and finance, and the unproductiveness, for the time being, of the 50,000,000 men engaged in mili- , tary and other duties connected with i the war or held in readiness for warfare. CLASSIFICATIONS OF COST. Take the last of these items, and let it be supposed that only half the number were taken from industrial

occupations. Let it be further supposed that in the interests of moderation that their average productive power over and above the costs of | material, labour, etc., was not more than £25 a year, also that their average period of purely military duties was limited to two years, this would give us a loss of £50 per man, or 1250 millions in all. Then, there is the capital value of tl c killed and permanently disabled. Without counting Belgium, Servia, Japan and Portugal, the losses in killed were over 5,500,000, and the number of wounded incapable of returning to any occupation from 2,000,000 to ?.,000,000, more. Altogether it seems fair to reckon* that not fewer than 9,000,000 men between the ages of 18 and 48 have been sacrificed. If we put their average earnings down at no more than 20s a week, and their average probability of life at only ten years we get an economic loss of £4680 millions This is to value each man, taking one with another, at £520, whereas some economists put it as high as £1000. There is the further consideration that the great majority of these victims, if'not all of them, were potential taxpayers, and that their removal puts a heavier burden on those who are left. We may now sum up these classifications of cost. We have 40,----000 millions for direct cost, 3000 millions lor material damage, 1250 millions for loss of production, and 4680 millions as the economic value of the lost and disabled lives, making altogether nearly 50,000 millions, jA& a set off against the possibility'of some overlapping, we may put the indirect costs of diminished trade and financial disturbances. £50,000,000,000, as Mercutio said, "is enough; 'twil serve," for it is about one half of the aggregate prewar wealth of the four richest countries—the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. COSTS ENORMOUS, ASSETS NIL From the point of view of ordinary accountancy, the scale kicks the beam. It is a balance sheet with nothing on the credit side. The material costs are enormous, the material assets are nil. At the very best the result is a poor halfpennyworth of bread to an intolerable deal of sack. Vast sums have been used for sheer destruction; vast public debts have been incurred for which there is no corresponding property. Throughout two-thirds of the world the work of useful production has been suspended during four years, and its place has been taken by production for the slaughter of human lives and the annihilation of accumulated wealth. Millions of men have been killed, thousands of millions of pounds have been wasted in order to kill them, towns and villages and smiling homesteads have been swept out of existence, great vessels laden with precious cargoes have been sent to the bottom of the sea, and against all this there is nothing to be set that can be reckoned in economic values. But there is a moral asset to be taken into account. We may, at least, hope that we have put an end for ever to the danger of Prussian militarism; but precious though such a consummation may be, it is an insufficient return for such huge and almost intolerable sacrifices. If out of the ruins and hecatombs of the last four years there arises a new, brighter and happier world, then the billions that have been spent will not all have been spent in vain. Without such a denouement the world will be bankrupt of hope as well as of money.