H.—llb,

8

Also, assuming marriageable ages as, roughly, 20-34 years for women and 20-39 years for men, the proportion of the never-married former to the latter was under 63 per cent, in 1896, and 67 per cent, in 1926, indicating diminished probabilities of marriage and consequent non-withdrawal from industry. This would be even more marked a few years ago during the period of greatest effect of the war upon the male age-constitution. From the foregoing it follows that in New Zealand unemployment may be classified as follows : — (1) Seasonal unemployment in the primary industries —butter and cheese making, shearing, meat-freezing, harvesting. (2) Unemployment in other industries because of the seasonal nature of the primary industries —as, for instance, in connection with the transport and shipment of butter and cheese, wool, and meat. (3) Unemployment arising out of the permanent replacement of manual labour by the use of improved methods and machinery —as, for instance, the use of tractors and other improved appliances for the loading and unloading of ships and cargo handling on wharves, the use of steam shovels and other plant in roadmaking, and the use of more effective machines generally in connection with manufacturing. (4) Unemployment arising from the substitution of new materials —as, for instance, the use of oil in place of coal as ships' fuel, the use of electric power in place of steam, and the use of brick, concrete, and steel in place of timber in buildings. (5) Periodic general unemployment arising from general depression of trade, as occurred particularly in 1921-22 and again in 1926-27. (6) Unemployment arising from incapacity or from improper training. (1) Seasonal Unemployment. It is obvious that the work of butter and cheese making, harvesting, shearing, and meat-freezing will always be seasonal, and that for a portion of each year the workers who regularly supply the demand for labour in these industries must seek other employment or be unemployed. The seasons for butter and cheese making and for meat-freezing overlap and transference of workers between these two occupations is not possible. Workers may, however, pass from shearing to meat-freezing and harvesting and so secure a longer period of country work then if they did not follow both occupations. In relation to all workers in these industries there remains the striking and unalterable condition that their occupations cease to .exist for a definite period each year. There is a very important difference which should be noted between the regular and periodic unemployment of these workers alternating with regular and periodic employment at standard wages and the unemployment arising from changes of method, the use of machinery, and similar causes. Obviously the latter is the more serious. (2) Unemployment in other Industries because of the Seasonal Nature of the Primary Industries. The production in the primary industries being seasonal, it follows that the work of transporting the products of those industries must be seasonal also, and hence we have an intensely busy season in connection with road, rail, and coastal sea transport, and also in connection with waterside work and overseas shipping. The busy season is followed by a period of comparative rest and partial unemployment, during which the workers regularly engaged in transport and waterside work must be wholly or partially unemployed. Coal-mining is also a seasonal industry in some districts, but this industry provides its own relief work, the men who are fully employed in the busy season remaining in employment throughout the slack season but reducing the number of days worked per fortnight. (3) and (4) Unemployment arising out of the Permanent Replacement of Manual Labour by the Introduction of Improved Methods and Machines and by the Substitution of New Materials. In countries where manufacturing forms a larger part of industry than it does in New Zealand this is a factor of very great importance, and is probably the most potent of all causes of unemployment. For instance, Mr. J. J. Davis, Secretary of the United States Department of Labour, in a recent article says : — "In the past seven years productivity has increased about 40 per cent. If our productivity had remained what it was even in 1919 the country would need 140 men to do the work formerly done by 100. The growth of our population in number and consuming-power woidd have brought this about. But even with the ten million more consumers we now have, our factories are supplying the nation's needs with 7 per cent, fewer workers." He continues as follows :— " There is no need yet for alarm, but at the same time we must ask ourselves, is automatic machinery driven by limitless power going to leave' on our hands a state of chronic and increasing unemployment ? Is prosperity going to double back on itself and bring us social distress ? It is manifest that in the promulgation of rationalization it must go on, for we cannot in any way set limits to or retard progress ; we must consider the effect on the individual, and find some means of rationalizing his services, otherwise the world will be the poorer as the result."