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last war is any criterion, then the birth-rate will in a year or two tend to fall. Any fall brings the danger-point much nearer. This tendency to follow the experience of the last post-war period, however, may be negatived by such positive measures as better wages and working-conditions, family allowances, maternity benefits, health benefits, social security provisions against sickness, invalidity, and old age, universal superannuation, improved housing conditions, and suchlike amenities. It is too early, however, to estimate the effects of these things. If they have had any effect on the birth-rate up to the present they have been masked by the influence of the war. Great interest attaches, therefore, to the next few years with a view to determining the real influences of these economic incentives on child-bearing. In passing, it is well to mention that in most of the countries with western European populations, the net reproductive rate is well below I—in England between 0-7 and 0-8. This means a serious potential decline in population within a relatively short time. D. MIGRATION A further factor affecting population growth is that of external migration. The following table shows, at five-yearly intervals, the arrivals, departures, "and the excess of arrivals over departures :

Table No. 22.—Table showing Immigration, Emigration, and Excess of Arrivals over Departures from 1861 to 1945

(1) Armed Forces not included between 1914 and 1920 and between 1939 and 1945. (2) Figures for the period from 1921-1925 do not correspond with figures for the same period in Table No. 24—the difference of 1,126 is due to a change in a recent Year-Book, for which no explanation is offered. Similarly for difference of 2,862 in the 1926-1930 period. The more recent figures are more accurate. From 1931 and onwards the figures in the above tables are for years ending 31st March. Hence there is some overlap in the above figures as between period 1926-1930 and 1931-1935. Figures "from 1931 onward therefore do not agree with figures in next table, which are for calendar years. The importance of external migration over the period under review is clearly marked in the table. In the early years up to approximately 1880, immigration was very important, principally of the assisted type, although. during that period, particularly during the early years of the period, there were a large number of free immigrants arriving, particularly in connection with the discovery of gold. The excess of departures over arrivals for the period between 1886 and 1890, and again between 1931 and 1935, is due solely to the depressions which operated in those periods. The large increase between 1911 and 1915, and again between 1921 and 1925, are due to some extent to the

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Arrivals. Departures. Excess of Arrivals over M. F. T. M. F. T. Departures. 1861-65 107,526 34,680 142,206 44,241 4,796 49,037 93,169 1866-70 37,085 15,684 52,769 25,918 6,315 32,233 20,536 1871-75 67,560 42,522 110,082 21,059 7,077 28,136 81,946 1876-80 55,049 31,726 86,775 23,179 8,809 31,988 54,787 1881-85 48,144 27,924 76,068 32,186 14,923 47,109 28,959 1886-90 49,315 24,501 73,816 54,226 28,292 82,518 - 8,702* 1891-95 69,499 36,288 105,787 59,582 30,885 90,467 15,320 1896-1900 59,650 31,613 91,263 52,330 28,295 80,625 10,638 1901-05 102,293 49,286 151,579 71,070 35,063 106,133 45,446 1906-10 124,377 70,353 194,730 99,923 53,841 153,764 40,966 1911-15 115,012 78,822 193,834 97,356 60,917 158,273 35,561 1916-20 61,933 52,414 114,347 54,954 44,539 99,493 14,854 1921-25 109,749 89,515 195,264 80,095 66,286 146,381 48,883 1926-30 102,343 84,494 186,837 90,285 74,787 165,072 21,765 1931-35 58,874 53,059 111,933 62,924 55,152 118,076 - 6,143* 1936-40 86,145 85,279 171,424 78,528 80,986 159,514 11,910 1941-45 18,441 16,562 35,003 16,999 15,415 32,414 2,589 * Excess of departures.