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If in the field of agriculture there is some evidence that the demand for agricultural labour has been satisfied, this cannot be said of the manufacturing field, where large unsatisfied demands exist at the present time. Some indication of the present unsatisfied demands of secondary industry for labour is given by the following figures of vacancies notified from secondary industries to the Director of Employment at the end of July, 1946 :

It is of importance to observe that the above table shows only notified vacancies. There can be little doubt that there are many more vacancies which are not advised to the Director of Employment, and that approximately only 50 per cent, of the actual total vacancies in secondary industries are included above. At a later stage the question of the satisfaction of this demand will be discussed in some detail, but at this stage it is worth pointing out that even if there were immigrants available to come to New Zealand to work in the manufacturing industries the problem of housing is such as to severely limit such a development in the immediate future. The problem of the location of industry has been discussed elsewhere. D. POTENTIAL INDUSTRIAL POPULATION In view of the above evidence of expanding industrial economy and an unsatisfied demand for labour within that industry it is important to examine the future possibilities of obtaining within the country recruits for industrial purposes. The key to this situation is found in the birth-rate. On the assumption that young people enter industry between the ages of fourteen and eighteen, then the birth-rate from fourteen to eighteen years* previously is the determining factor in estimating the number that will be available for industry at any given time. The following table, taken from the evidence submitted by the Industries and Commerce Department, sets out over a period of twenty years the juvenile population of New Zealand : Table No. 100.—Table showing Juvenile Population (aged Fourteen to Eighteen) of New Zealand from 1938 to 1956 (Note.—The numbers refer to those born from fourteen to eighteen years previously) Year. Juvenile Population. Year. Juvenile Population. - 1938 .. .. 144,375 1948 .. .. 126,949 1939 .. .. 142,607 1949 .. .. 124,137 1940 .. .. 141,613 1950 .. .. 122,432 1941 .. .. 140,488 1951 .. .. 123,560 1942 .. .. 139,721 1952 .. .. 126,475 1943 .. .. 138,454 1953 .. .. 130,986 1944 .. .. 137,088 1954 .. .. 139,792 1945 .. .. 135,237 1955 .. .. 149,955 1946 .. .. 132,240 1956 .. .. 157,510 1947 .. 129,374

* The school leaving age is now fifteen years of age.

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Notified Vacancies. Group. Males. Females. Total. Food, drink, and tobacco 310 676 986 Textiles, clothing, leather 494 6,029 6,523 Building materials and furnishings 501 89 590 Engineering and metals 2,193 267 2,460 Other secondary 410 1,049 1,459 Power and water supply 113 7 120 Totals 4,021 8,117 12,138