I—l 7

The net effect of these various and interacting movements has been to stimulate manufacturing industries in the Dominion. Add to all these factors the world shortage in all types of consumable commodities, together with the very greatly increased purchasing-power in the hands of the public, and it can easily be seen why in New Zealand, as in most other countries, there is a tremendous shortage of all types of goods, including manufactured articles. Quite apart from any of these factors, however, this world shortage makes it physically impossible to supply from imports, even if they are available, the internal demands of this Dominion. The conclusions to be drawn from this brief summary, together with the statistical analysis given earlier, is that in the immediate future, if not in the long run, New Zealand will continue to develop its secondary industries.. At the present moment it has been shown there is a grave shortage of operatives for secondary industries. This shortage carries over into the tertiary industries. The major question which the Committee has to consider is as to what is the source from which the shortage of operatives in secondary industries can be satisfied. As far as new entrants into industries is concerned, the position for the next seven or eight years is extremely serious. This is largely due to the heavy fall in the birth-rate during the depression, a fall which is now beginning to have its influence on the number of adolescents available to enter the industrial field. This gap in the birth-rate will have important repercussions not only in the next seven or eight years, but for two or three decades, because a gap in the birth-rate cannot from internal sources be rectified. While improved methods of technical education and technological developments can improve the efficiency of the worker, and hence increase the output, in the short run at least the effect of this decline in the number of new operatives must affect the output. Various witnesses, including the Industries and Commerce Department, Manufacturers' Federation, the Federation of Labour, and suchlike institutions suggested that the remedy was to be found in bringing certain types of immigrants into the country. No first-hand information was available to us as to the possibility of finding such immigrants. An Australian Commission of Inquiry which recently reported to the Federal Government after an investigation in England and northern Europe suggested that there was little labour available from any of these countries for immigration to Australia. In general, their report may be summed up as stating that most northern European countries have so much leeway to make up in their own reconstruction work and in the development of their own industries that the Governments in these countries are unwilling to agree to any large-scale emigration policy. On the other hand, there was some suggestion from other quarters and from newspaper reports that there were some people in countries like Denmark and Holland, and possibly Poland, who were anxious to come to New Zealand. There is also some .evidence that the New Zealand High Commissioner in London is receiving large numbers of applications from persons anxious to reside in this country. None of the evidence available to us, however, was sufficient for us to form a final conclusion on this matter. We will set out at a later stage in this report our view that a delegation should at an early date visit Great Britain and the northern European countries to ascertain at first hand if'and where emigrants are available. Even if they are available, however, we find ourselves in the serious situation that at present shipping is not available to make any large-scale immigration plan feasible, and, further, the housing problem in New Zealand is so serious that even a few thousand immigrants would create a very serious internal housing problem. Our final conclusion on this matter, therefore, is that New Zealand cannot from its own man-power resources, either at present or in the immediate future, satisfy the demands of secondary industries. Unless those demands are satisfied, there will be some disincentive to continue industrial expansion in the Dominion, a factor which may have serious effects in the future. Even if in the immediate future it is impossible to bring all the immigrants desirable to the Dominion, steps should be taken straight away to make preparations, so that when it is possible in this country to house immigrants they can be immediately brought here.

98