I—l 7

SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1. BIRTH-RATE If the very low birth-rate of between 16 and 17 per 1,000 which was in existence in 1936 had continued, then, apart from immigration possibilities,, the population would in a relatively short time have tended to decline. The rate of over 23 per 1,000 in 1945 is abnormally high, and is probably due to conditions associated with the return of servicemen from overseas. Other things being equal, and excluding the possible beneficial effect of the universal family benefit, the rate is likely to stabilize somewhere between 18 and 21 per 1,000. At this rate, and providing the size.of'families remains constant, the population will slowly increase. The heavy fall in the birth-rates during the depression, however, has created a gap in our population which it will be impossible to fill. This will create employment difficulties, particularly in the next six or seven years. 2. DEATH-RATE Due to the fact that the age-structure of the population is now definitely that of a matured country, we cannot expect a continuation of the rate of fall in the death-rate which was in evidence over earlier periods of New Zealand's history. Of recent years the total death-rate has fallen largely because of a fall in the infantile death-rate. Since this is now the lowest in the world, a continuance in the rate of fall cannot be expected. 3. MAORI POPULATION The very great increase of recent years iln the Maori population is the outstanding fact in New Zealand's population development. The total Maori population increased by nearly 30 per cent, between 1926 and 1936. Approximately 97 per cent, of the Maori population live in the North Island. The Maori death-rate, however, is considerably greater thain the European death-rate, and this is particularly true of the Maori infantile death-rate, which, in 1944, was 102-26 per 1,000 Maori births, as compared with 3012 per 1,000 non-Maori births. 4. EXPECTATION OF LIFE The average expectation of life, which increased very considerably between 1891 and 1931, is still increasing, but at a slower rate. The average expectation of life for males is now 65 46 and for females 68 45. For Maoris the average expectation of life is 46-2 years for both sexes. 5. RACE-STRUCTURE The population of New Zealand is predominantly European. At the present time 94-33 per cent, are of European extraction, 5-23 per cent, of Maori extraction, and only 0-44 per cent, of other than European or Maori extraction. 6. ALLEGIANCE STRUCTURE Aliens owning allegiance to other than the British Crown represent only 0-4 per cent, of the population.

126