H—34a

would normally graduate at the end of 1948. Over the five-year period 1943-47 we found that this percentage was approximately 16 per cent. We have therefore made the following projectionsScience Students. Bachelor Science Graduates. 1946 .. .. 1,516 1948, 16 per cent, of 1,516 = 242 1947 .. .. 1,750 1949, 16 per cent, of 1,750 = 280 1948 .. .. 1,750 (assumed) 1950 .. .. .. 280 1949 .. .. 1,750 (assumed) 1951 .. .. ..280 1950.. .. 1,750 (assumed) 1952.. .. .. 280 1,362 All University colleges have not yet made a return of the number of their science students for 1948, but the figures to hand indicate that any decrease on 1947 figures will not be large. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that the total number of bachelor graduates between 1948 and 1952 inclusive will be in the vicinity of 1,362. Similar projections for agriculture and home science indicate that the number of graduates in these fields between 1948 and 1952 inclusive will be 195 and 102 respectively. MATCHING THE SUPPLY WITH THE DEMAND Our questionnaires directed to employers of scientists have disclosed that employers estimate that an additional 661 scientists, 79 agricultural scientists, and 26 home scientists will be needed by 1952. To these numbers must be added the estimated wastage between 1948 and 1952 inclusive, an estimated total of 515 (see page 10 of this report). This estimate, it will be remembered, is based upon the 103 replacements during the year 1947, amounting to some 7 per cent, of the scientists actually employed in that year. Before making any comparison of the anticipated demand by 1952 with the estimated number of students graduating between 1948 and 1952 an endeavour was made on the basis of past experience to ascertain what proportion of science graduates take up some form of scientific employment within New Zealand. The line of reasoning is as follows : Scientific labour force (inclusive of post-primary schools) in 1927 .. 250 Scientific labour force (inclusive of post-primary schools) in 1947 .. - 1,441 Increase in scientific labour force in twenty years. .. .. .. 1,191 * Wastage over twenty years at 7 per cent, per annum .. .. 900 Total number of graduates required .. .. .. ..2,091 Actual number of bachelor graduates in science, agriculture, and home science, 1927-47.. .. .. .. .. .. 2,198 Apparent surplus .. .. .. .. .. .. 107 Apparently, therefore, some 5 per cent, of the total number of bachelor graduates are unaccounted for. This figure seems on the low side, but is, of course, dependent upon the estimated wastage figure of 7 per cent, per annum. If we consider as many as 10 per cent, of the total number of bachelor graduates not available for scientific employment Table E will show the apparent excess or deficit of scientists in 1952.

* This wastage was obtained separately for each five-year period.

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