C—3a

24. A further factor affecting paper-supplies is the increased manufacture of dissolving grades of pulp, mainly for the production of textile fibres. Although this diversion affects only a small proportion of the total production of chemical pulp at present, it tends to reduce the amounts available for the production of paper and paperboard whenever it occurs without the corresponding expansion of pulp-producing capacity as is true in some of the older pulp-producing areas.

Table I—Preliminary World Pulp Balance*

Apparent surplus (+) or deficit (—)

B. Short-term Situation 25. The figures appearing in Table I with regard to 1949 and 1950 are, on the whole, more reliable estimates than those shown for 1955. Yet even in interpreting these figures it should be remembered that they constitute maximum estimates which are both possible and desirable, but which might be substantially modified in the light of general economic conditions. Moreover, the fulfilment of these estimates must come in most Countries from the action of individual producers and pulp-consuming industries, over which the Governments represented at this Conference exercise no direct control. 26. The world pulp-production in 1948 was some 3,000,000 tons higher than in 1937, the best pre-war year. Statistics assembled by the Conference indicated that this output was slightly in excess of current consumption. Although the apparent world surplus was less than 3 per cent, of production and may be due to statistical inaccuracies, it tends to explain the recent decline in prices, accumulation of stocks, and the difficulties encountered by producers in disposing of their pulp.

15

(In 1,000 metric tons) 1937. 1948. 1949. 1950. 1955. Region. sumption. Production. sumption. Production. Requirements. Production. Requirements. Production. Requirements. Production. Europe U.S.S.R. (for export) .. Near East North America Latin America Africa Asia Oceania 10,000 ' *15 12,055 245 1,525 50 12,445 5 10,950 25 1^190 6,700 " 15 19,255 470 15 520 165 7,900 40 10 19,045 190 15 505 120 8,050 "20 18,930 540 15 630 160 8,750 50 15 18,485 295 15 545 110 9,080 "20 20,290 570 15 715 220 9,370 75 15 19,800 315 15 660 140 11,430 "25 23,705 700 35 925 410 10,900 200 30 23,475 440 30 865 320 World 23,890 24,615 27,145 27,780 28,345 28,265 30,910 30,395 37,230 36,260

Region. 1937. 1948. 1949. 1950. 1955. Europe +2,445 + 1,200 +700 +290 -530 U.S.S.R. + 40 + 50 + 75 +200 Near East - 10 — 5 — 5 — 5 + 5 North America -1,105 - 210 -445 -490 -230 Latin America - 220 - 280 -245 -255 -260 Africa — 5 Asia - 335 - "l5 — *85 — 55 - 60 Oceania - 50 — 45 - 50 - 80 - 90 World + 725 + 635 - 80 -515 -970 * The forward estimates are based upon varying hypothetical assumptions as to prevailing economic conditions in the various countries of the world.