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take on itself the task of assessing the future developments in a number of countries, some of which, like Sweden and Finland, are among the most important wood-pulp producers. 34. A further general qualification of all figures for 1955 is necessary as a result of the usual tendency in forward estimates to exaggerate future requirements and to underestimate prospective production. Allowance for this error suggests that the 3 per cent, deficit between world requirements and production in 1955 shown in Table I is not likely to occur, and that a satisfactory balance between production and requirements may be anticipated for 1955 if the assumptions underlying the estimates in Table I are realized and the necessary pulp-wood is available. 35. Finally, it should be stressed that the figures listed for 1955 do not represent forecasts in the usual sense, but rather indicate expectations for the production and consumption of wood-pulp in individual countries. These expectations are based for many countries on the assumption of full employment and continued economic expansion, and are bound to undergo modification under the impact of subsequent developments, including considerations arising from the balance of payments of various countries. Moreover, forecasts may be revised in some important respects in the light of the findings of this Conference. Since it was the purpose of the Conference to attempt a regional and world-wide review of programmes for wood-pulp production and distribution, a revision of those expectations as a result of its findings would implement one of the major purposes which it hopes to achieve. 11. Consumer Needs * 36. Pulp requirements arise from the needs of paper and other industries manufacturing an ever-growing variety of pulp products such as newsprint, other printing and writing papers, wrappings, paper-board, building-boards, rayon, &c. The output and hence the requirements of these pulp-processing industries is in turn determined by the effective demand of consumers for their products. 37. Without attempting an assessment of consumer needs for paper and other pulp products, the Conference felt that the trend of pulp requirements for the period 1948-55 as shown in Table I appears adequate to cover the needs of consumers in different parts of the world in terms of effective demand and purchasing capacity. It appears unlikely that substantially larger amounts of paper and other pulp products could be imported and bought even if they were available. On the other hand, the Conference was not certain whether pulp-production in 1955 would actually reach the projected levels, mainly on account of raw-material shortages in Europe and Japan, which are discussed later in this report. 38. A more detailed examination of needs for pulp products was beyond the scope of the present Conference. To assess these needs it would be necessary to consider not only the desirable and the possible trends in the consumption of paper for educational purposes and for packaging, and in the manufacture of rayon for clothing and for industrial purposes, but also to determine the extent to which the purchasing-power of consumers and the balance of payment of countries that import paper and rayon would make it possible to meet these needs. 39. Moreover, increasing amounts of straw, bamboo, waste paper, and other raw materials are used in addition to wood-pulp for papermaking, and all these materials must be taken into consideration in any attempt to establish a balance for paper and other pulp products. These additional raw materials, although of agricultural or forestry origin, were not included in the terms of reference of the present Conference, which was therefore unable to give to them that thorough consideration which their importance may justify.

*" Needs " is used in this section to indicate consumer requirements, irrespective of economic or physical possibilities for meeting them.

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