H—39

Table E below has been worked out exactly on the basis indicated above, but it must be remembered that it is merely a forecast for the next quarter of a century.

Table E—Effect of Providing 120 Professional Engineers Annually

(ii) How Many Students Will it be Necessary to Train to Provide an Output op 120 Per Year ? 94. The answer to this question entails an investigation of the incidence of student mortality. Before considering this, however, it is necessary to divide the proposed output of 120 into graduates and non-graduates. A distribution on the following basis will be sufficiently correct: — Graduates .. .. .. 75 Non-graduates .. .. .. .. 45 95. There is not enough information available to make any further estimates about the number of non-graduates—i.e., Institution membership students —beyond what has been given earlier in the chapter. However, even if no more enter the profession by this avenue it would be possible to obtain 45 a year for some years from those already at various stages of their training. The effect of the improvements which the Committee is suggesting will be to reduce the time which the average candidate for Institution membership takes. This will automatically result in a greater annual output for as long

27

Year. Xumber of Professional Engineers at Beginning of Year. Deduct Wastage at 4 Per Cent. Balance. Add Intake. Balance at End of Year. Number Required to Provide 850. Per Million, <fcc. Shortage. Actual Number Per Million of Population. 1 .. 1,150 46 1,104 120 1,224 1,572 1 348 660 2 1,224 49 1,175 120 1,295 1,593 298 690 3 !! 1,295 52 1,243 120 1,363 1,614 251 720 4 .. 1,363 55 1,308 120 1,428 1,635 207 740 5 .. 1,428 57 1,371 120 1,491 1,657 166 770 6 .. 1,491 60 1,431 120 1,551 1,678 127 790 7 .. 1,551 62 1,489 120 1,609 1,699 90 810 8 .. 1,609 64 1,545 120 1,665 1,729 55 820 9 .. 1,665 67 1,598 120 1,718 1,742 24 840 10 .. 1,718 69 1,649 120 1,769 1,763 -6 850 Transfer to Goal of 900 Per Million 10 .. 1,718 69 1,649 120 1,769 1,868 99 850 11 .. 1,769 71 1,698 120 1,818 1,890 72 870 12 .. 1,818 73 1,745 120 1,865 1,913 48 880 13 .. 1,865 75 1,790 120 1,910 1,935 25 890 14 .. 1,910 76 1,834 120 1,954 1,958 4 900 15 1,954 78 1,876 120 1,996 1,980 -16 910 Transfer to Goal of 950 Per Million 15 .. I 1,954 78 1,876 120 1,996 2,090 94 | 910 16 1,996 80 1,916 120 2,036 2,114 78 920 17 2,036 81 1,955 120 2,075 2,138 63 920 18 .. 1 2,075 83 1,992 120 2,112 2,162 50 930 19 2,112 84 2,028 120 2,148 2,185 37 930 20 .. 2,148 86 2,062 120 2,182 2,209 27 940 21 .. ! 2,182 87 2,095 120 2,215 2,233 18 940 22 2,215 89 2,126 120 2,246 2,257 11 950 23 \ 2,246 90 2,156 120 2,276 2,280 4 950 24 .. 2,276 91 2,185 120 2,305 2,304 -1 950 25 .. | 2,305 92 2,213 120 2,333 2,328 — 5 1 950